The same question — “what is the valuation of X on January 1, {2024–2030}?” — asked of 26 models whose knowledge cutoffs span September 2021 to February 2026, with no internet access. Each line is a cutoff vintage: darker means the model’s knowledge stops later. Red is what actually happened.
Median forecast across all models sharing a cutoff year (3 samples per model per question, log scale, USD billions). Targets a model could already “know” are excluded.
Every model’s own median trajectory, colored by family. Hover for details.
Fix a target date; each dot is one model’s median forecast for it, placed at that model’s knowledge cutoff. The line joins cutoff-cohort medians — belief revision in slow motion.